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Patent US6076083A successfully refreshed from Google Patents.
US6076083A
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Diagnostic system utilizing a Bayesian network model having link weights updated experimentally
Assignee: BAKER INVENTIONS LLC
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Filing: 1996-08-21
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Granted: 2000-06-13
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Expires: 2016-08-21
Abstract
Abstract Diagnostic systems utilizing a bayesian network model having link weights updated experientially include an algorithm for easily quantifying the strength of links in a Bayesian network, a method for reducing the amount of data needed to automatically update the probability matrices of the network on the basis of experiential knowledge, and methods and algorithms for automatically collecting knowledge from experience and automatically updating the Bayesian network with the collected knowledge. A practical exemplary embodiment provides a trouble ticket fault management system for a communications network. The exemplary embodiment is particularly appropriate for utilizing the automatic learning capabilities of the invention. In the exemplary embodiment, a communications network is represented as a Bayesian network where devices and communication links are represented as nodes in the Bayesian network. Faults in the communications network are identified and recorded in the form of a trouble ticket and one or more probable causes of the fault are given based on the Bayesian network calculations. When a fault is corrected, the trouble ticket is updated with the knowledge learned from correcting the fault. The updated trouble ticket information is used to automatically update the appropriate probability matrices in the Bayesian network.
Inventors
- 👤 Michelle Baker
Bibliographic Details
Application Number
—
Jurisdiction
US
Data Source
google_patents
Last Synchronized
2026-10-29 21:28
CPC Classifications
G; G06; G06N; G06N7/00; G06N7/01; H; H04; H04L; H04L69/00; H04L69/40
Claims Analysis
Total Claims: 23
Claim 1
Independent Claim
171 words
An apparatus for detecting problems in a system which generates a plurality of symptoms, said apparatus comprising: a) a storage device storing a Bayesian network model representing a domain of knowledge about the system wherein each node of said model represents one of the state of the system, the state of a component of the system, and a symptom, and each node is associated with a conditional probability matrix which specifies the relationship of the node to one of probabilistic dependents and probabilistic antecedents in the model; b) monitoring means for monitoring a plurality of symptom data values; c) means for instantiating symptom data values in said Bayesian network model; d) means for automatically updating appropriate probability matrices on the basis of new knowledge obtained by said monitoring means about the probable association of symptoms with problems and thereby changing said Bayesian network model to better represent said domain of knowledge as new knowledge accumulates; and e) means for using said updated Bayesian network model to detect problems in the system.
Claim 2
Independent Claim
171 words
An apparatus for detecting problems in a system which generates a plurality of symptoms, said apparatus comprising: a) a storage device storing a Bayesian network model representing a domain of knowledge about the system wherein each node of said model represents one of the state of the system, the state of a component of the system, and a symptom, and each node is associated with a conditional probability matrix which specifies the relationship of the node to one of probabilistic dependents and probabilistic antecedents in the model; b) monitoring means for monitoring a plurality of symptom data values; c) means for instantiating symptom data values in said Bayesian network model; d) means for automatically updating appropriate probability matrices on the basis of new knowledge obtained by said monitoring means about the probable association of symptoms with problems and thereby changing said Bayesian network model to better represent said domain of knowledge as new knowledge accumulates; and e) means for using said updated Bayesian network model to detect problems in the system.
Claim 3
Dependent Claim
22 words
An apparatus according to claim 1, further comprising: e) means for gathering new knowledge about the probable association of symptoms with problems.
Claim 4
Dependent Claim
19 words
An apparatus according to claim 2, wherein: said means for gathering includes a plurality of iteratively executed diagnostic tests.
Claim 5
Dependent Claim
16 words
An apparatus according to claim 2, wherein: said means for gathering includes a user input device.
Claim 6
Dependent Claim
27 words
An apparatus according to claim 1, wherein: said means for automatically updating includes means for reducing the amount of data needed to automatically update said probability matrices.
Claim 7
Dependent Claim
34 words
An apparatus according to claim 1, further comprising: e) graphical display means for displaying problems and diagnoses, wherein said display means provides high level information with the ability to choose display of underlying data.
Claim 8
Dependent Claim
65 words
An apparatus according to claim 1, wherein: said means for automatically updating includes means for incrementally updating probability values in the cells of the probability matrices such that a new probability distribution is obtained without reference to information beyond the total number of observations of all cases, the description of the latest observation, and the previous probability value for cells that match the latest observation.
Claim 9
Dependent Claim
69 words
An apparatus according to claim 1, wherein: said means for automatically updating includes means for incrementally updating probability values in the cells of the probability matrices such that any new probability values are consistent according to the laws of probability with all other probability values already specified, and only probability values in root cells and cells with a parent configuration that matches the new observation need to be modified.
Claim 10
Dependent Claim
108 words
An apparatus according to claim 1, wherein: said means for updating the cell in the matrix which matches the observed state of X and the observed states of the parents of X, includes means for calculating the probability that X will show this state and the parents A will show states according to equation ##EQU8## where C(X)=r/dom(X), and said means for updating the cell(s) in the matrix which do not match the observed state of X, but do match the parent(s) of X, includes means for calculating the probability that X will show these state(s) and the parents A will show state(s) a according to the equation ##EQU9##10.
Claim 11
Independent Claim
128 words
A method of implementing an expert diagnostic system which diagnoses problems given symptoms, comprising: a) representing problems and symptoms as nodes in a Bayesian network model representing a domain of knowledge; b) linking problems with associated symptoms with causality vectors; c) defining a conditional probability matrix for each symptom being caused by a set of problems; d) monitoring a plurality of symptom data values; e) instantiating symptom data values in the Bayesian network model; f) automatically redefining appropriate conditional probability matrices based on new knowledge about the probable association between symptoms and problems obtained from said step of monitoring and thereby changing the Bayesian network model to better represent the domain of knowledge as new knowledge accumulates; and g) making a diagnosis using the updated Bayesian network model.
Claim 12
Independent Claim
128 words
A method of implementing an expert diagnostic system which diagnoses problems given symptoms, comprising: a) representing problems and symptoms as nodes in a Bayesian network model representing a domain of knowledge; b) linking problems with associated symptoms with causality vectors; c) defining a conditional probability matrix for each symptom being caused by a set of problems; d) monitoring a plurality of symptom data values; e) instantiating symptom data values in the Bayesian network model; f) automatically redefining appropriate conditional probability matrices based on new knowledge about the probable association between symptoms and problems obtained from said step of monitoring and thereby changing the Bayesian network model to better represent the domain of knowledge as new knowledge accumulates; and g) making a diagnosis using the updated Bayesian network model.
Claim 13
Dependent Claim
20 words
A method according to claim 10, further comprising: e) collecting new knowledge regarding the probable association between symptoms and problems.
Claim 14
Dependent Claim
19 words
A method according to claim 11, wherein: said step of collecting includes iteratively executing a plurality of diagnostic tests.
Claim 15
Dependent Claim
15 words
A method according to claim 11, wherein: said step of collecting includes manually inputting data.
Claim 16
Dependent Claim
25 words
A method according to claim 10, wherein: said step of automatically updating includes reducing the amount of data needed to automatically update the probability matrices.
Claim 17
Dependent Claim
30 words
A method according to claim 10, further comprising: e) graphically displaying problems and diagnoses, wherein said display provides high level information with the ability to choose display of underlying data.
Claim 18
Dependent Claim
63 words
A method according to claim 10, wherein: said step of automatically updating includes incrementally updating probability values in the cells of the probability matrices such that a new probability distribution is obtained without reference to information beyond the total number of observations of all cases, the description of the latest observation, and the previous probability value for cells that match the latest observation.
Claim 19
Dependent Claim
67 words
A method according to claim 10, wherein: said step of automatically updating includes incrementally updating probability values in the cells of the probability matrices such that any new probability values are consistent according to the laws of probability with all other probability values already specified, and only probability values in root cells and cells with a parent configuration that matches the new observation need to be modified.
Claim 20
Dependent Claim
104 words
A method according to claim 10, wherein: said step of updating the cell in the matrix which matches the observed state of X and the observed states of the parents of X, includes calculating the probability that X will show this state and the parents A will show states according to equation ##EQU10## where C(X)=r/dom(X), and said step of updating the cell(s) in the matrix which do not match the observed state of X, but do match the parent(s) of X, includes calculating the probability that X will show these state(s) and the parents A will show state(s) a according to the equation ##EQU11##
Claim 21
Dependent Claim
174 words
A trouble ticket fault management system for a communications network, comprising: a) storage device for storing a Bayesian network model representing a domain of knowledge about the communications network wherein each node of said model is associated with one of a device, a link, a device problem, a link problem, a device symptom, and a link symptom, and each node is associated with a probability matrix associating symptom data values with one or more problems; b) monitoring means for monitoring a plurality of symptom data values; c) means for instantiating symptom data values in said Bayesian network model; d) means for gathering new knowledge about the probable association of symptoms with problems; e) means for automatically updating appropriate probability matrices on the basis of new knowledge obtained by said means for gathering about the probable association of symptoms with problems and thereby changing said Bayesian network model to better represent said domain of knowledge as new knowledge accumulates; and f) means for detecting faults within the communications network using said updated Bayesian network model.
Claim 22
Dependent Claim
174 words
A trouble ticket fault management system for a communications network, comprising: a) storage device for storing a Bayesian network model representing a domain of knowledge about the communications network wherein each node of said model is associated with one of a device, a link, a device problem, a link problem, a device symptom, and a link symptom, and each node is associated with a probability matrix associating symptom data values with one or more problems; b) monitoring means for monitoring a plurality of symptom data values; c) means for instantiating symptom data values in said Bayesian network model; d) means for gathering new knowledge about the probable association of symptoms with problems; e) means for automatically updating appropriate probability matrices on the basis of new knowledge obtained by said means for gathering about the probable association of symptoms with problems and thereby changing said Bayesian network model to better represent said domain of knowledge as new knowledge accumulates; and f) means for detecting faults within the communications network using said updated Bayesian network model.
Claim 23
Dependent Claim
31 words
A system according to claim 19, wherein: said means gathering includes a trouble ticket manager coupled to a user interface for inputting information about symptoms and problems which have been resolved.
References Cited (Backward Citations)
US5005143A
Cited
US5493729A
Cited
USPTO Annuity & Maintenance Windows
| Annuity Stage | Window Opens | Payment Deadline | Surcharge Period Until | Estimated Fee | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5 Years (Year 4) | 2003-06-13 | 2003-12-13 | 2004-06-13 | $2000.00 | Window Closed / Lapsed |
| 7.5 Years (Year 8) | 2007-06-13 | 2007-12-13 | 2008-06-13 | $3760.00 | Window Closed / Lapsed |
| 11.5 Years (Year 12) | 2011-06-13 | 2011-12-13 | 2012-06-13 | $7700.00 | Window Closed / Lapsed |