US6397202B1
Expired / Lapsed
US
⏱️ 0.0 years remaining
System and method for monitoring risk in a system development program
Assignee: United States Department of the Navy
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Filing: 1999-07-01
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Granted: 2002-05-28
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Expires: 2019-07-01
Abstract
Abstract A computerized system and method are provided that may be used to project a plurality of risk levels that may develop during the course of a large development project. A plurality of inputs are stored and converted for use to a metric that is used by an expert knowledge rule based system to determine a plurality of risk levels that develops relating to successful completion of a large development program with respect to elements such as cost, time of delivery, and quality. A plurality of outputs are provided in a form that can be used by a program manager to reduce the level of risk that may arise. In a preferred embodiment, the plurality of outputs are provided in a quantified manner that may relate to a probability of failure of one or more aspects of the development program. The rules are based on the knowledge and experience of experts and are predetermined so that risk levels are objectively quantified prior to beginning the project rather than subjectively determined during the course of the project. The system can be implemented on a PC and can be used by a metric analyst or program manager.
Inventors
- 👤 Robert C. Higgins
- 👤 Steven W. Thorpe
Bibliographic Details
Application Number
—
Jurisdiction
US
Data Source
google_patents
Last Synchronized
2026-11-06 06:11
CPC Classifications
G; G06; G06Q; G06Q10/00; G06Q10/06
Claims Analysis
Total Claims: 26
Claim 1
Independent Claim
145 words
A method for monitoring risk related to a successful completion of a development project comprising the steps of: determining a plurality of variables relating to said successful completion of said development project; projecting a respective baseline of each of said plurality of variables for said successful completion of said development project; collecting data values related to each of said plurality of variables over a period of time; producing a rules module having therein rules based on knowledge developed from one or more experts relating to said plurality of variables for interpreting said data values with respect to said respective baseline; utilizing said rules module, said data values and said respective baseline for said plurality of variables for determining a plurality of risk levels related to a probability of one or more undesirable events; and providing a visual output representative of said plurality of risk levels.
Claim 2
Independent Claim
145 words
A method for monitoring risk related to a successful completion of a development project comprising the steps of: determining a plurality of variables relating to said successful completion of said development project; projecting a respective baseline of each of said plurality of variables for said successful completion of said development project; collecting data values related to each of said plurality of variables over a period of time; producing a rules module having therein rules based on knowledge developed from one or more experts relating to said plurality of variables for interpreting said data values with respect to said respective baseline; utilizing said rules module, said data values and said respective baseline for said plurality of variables for determining a plurality of risk levels related to a probability of one or more undesirable events; and providing a visual output representative of said plurality of risk levels.
Claim 3
Dependent Claim
16 words
The method of claim 1 wherein said development project involves development of a quantity of software.
Claim 4
Dependent Claim
16 words
The method of claim 1 further comprising determining each of said plurality of risk levels quantifiably.
Claim 5
Dependent Claim
36 words
The method of claim 3 wherein said visual output representative of said plurality of risk levels comprises a graph showing each of said plurality of risk levels plotted with respect to time during said development project.
Claim 6
Dependent Claim
22 words
The method of claim 1 wherein said plurality of risk levels are determined a plurality of selectable times during said development project.
Claim 7
Dependent Claim
20 words
The method of claim 1 further comprising converting each of said plurality of data values to a corresponding metric value.
Claim 8
Dependent Claim
19 words
The method of claim 6 further comprising utilizing said corresponding metric values to determine said plurality of risk levels.
Claim 9
Dependent Claim
16 words
The method of claim 7 further comprising determining each of said plurality of risk levels quantitatively.
Claim 10
Dependent Claim
22 words
The method of claim 1 where said data values relate to staffing levels, source lines of code and number of system requirements.
Claim 11
Dependent Claim
22 words
The method of claim 1 further comprising assigning weights to said plurality of variables relating to successful completion of said development project.
Claim 12
Dependent Claim
168 words
An expert system for determining risk in a development project, comprising: a first plurality of rules for identifying and monitoring a plurality of risk factors each of said plurality of rules being based on expert knowledge; a plurality of inputs for said expert system comprising data related to each of said plurality of risk factors for monitoring during said development project, each of said plurality of inputs being associated with a quantifiable value; a database for storing each of said plurality of inputs, said database being operable for storing a history of each of said plurality of inputs; a plurality of projected base levels for each of said plurality of risk factors, said database storing said plurality of projected base levels; and a computerized program using said plurality of rules for evaluating said plurality of said inputs with respect to said quantifiable and weighted value and for comparison with said plurality of projected base levels for determining a plurality of outputs related to said plurality of risk factors.
Claim 13
Dependent Claim
168 words
An expert system for determining risk in a development project, comprising: a first plurality of rules for identifying and monitoring a plurality of risk factors each of said plurality of rules being based on expert knowledge; a plurality of inputs for said expert system comprising data related to each of said plurality of risk factors for monitoring during said development project, each of said plurality of inputs being associated with a quantifiable value; a database for storing each of said plurality of inputs, said database being operable for storing a history of each of said plurality of inputs; a plurality of projected base levels for each of said plurality of risk factors, said database storing said plurality of projected base levels; and a computerized program using said plurality of rules for evaluating said plurality of said inputs with respect to said quantifiable and weighted value and for comparison with said plurality of projected base levels for determining a plurality of outputs related to said plurality of risk factors.
Claim 14
Dependent Claim
36 words
The expert system of claim 11 wherein said computerized program is operable for producing a historical chart showing historical values for each of said plurality of risk factors with respect to time during said development project.
Claim 15
Dependent Claim
13 words
The expert system of claim 12 wherein said historical values are numerical quantities.
Claim 16
Dependent Claim
24 words
The expert system of claim 11 wherein said computerized program is manipulatable such that each of said plurality of inputs may be selectively removable.
Claim 17
Dependent Claim
19 words
The expert system of claim 11 wherein said computerized program is manipulatable such that additional inputs may be added.
Claim 18
Dependent Claim
24 words
The expert system of claim 11 wherein said computerized program is manipulatable such that each of said plurality of outputs may be selectively removable.
Claim 19
Dependent Claim
19 words
The expert system of claim 11 wherein said computerized program is manipulatable such that additional outputs may be added.
Claim 20
Dependent Claim
19 words
The expert system of claim 11 wherein each of said plurality of outputs may be represented by non-numerical values.
Claim 21
Dependent Claim
47 words
The expert system of claim 11 further comprising a second plurality of rules for identifying and monitoring said plurality of risk factors, each of said second plurality of rules being based on alternative expert knowledge, said second plurality of rules being selectively usable by said computerized program.
Claim 22
Dependent Claim
26 words
The expert system of claim 11 wherein each of said plurality of risk factors is weighted such that each said quantifiable value is also accordingly weighted.
Claim 23
Dependent Claim
28 words
The expert system of claim 11 wherein said computerized program provides that at least one said plurality of outputs relates to an overall risk for said development project.
Claim 24
Independent Claim
112 words
A method for monitoring risk related to a successful completion of a development project comprising the steps of: providing a plurality of inputs related to risk to said successful completion of said development project; storing historical values of each of said plurality of inputs in a database; providing a respective base line projection for each of said plurality of inputs for said development project; providing a plurality of rule based risk assignment algorithms for predicting risk based on said plurality of inputs and said respective base line projection for each of said plurality of inputs; and providing a visual output representative of said plurality of risk levels plotted with respect to time.
Claim 25
Independent Claim
112 words
A method for monitoring risk related to a successful completion of a development project comprising the steps of: providing a plurality of inputs related to risk to said successful completion of said development project; storing historical values of each of said plurality of inputs in a database; providing a respective base line projection for each of said plurality of inputs for said development project; providing a plurality of rule based risk assignment algorithms for predicting risk based on said plurality of inputs and said respective base line projection for each of said plurality of inputs; and providing a visual output representative of said plurality of risk levels plotted with respect to time.
Claim 26
Dependent Claim
29 words
The method of claim 22 wherein visual output comprises a chart with each of said plurality of risk factors being plotted thereon and along with a total risk level.
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